Axle Load Violations Model for Sustainable Financing of Road Pavement Maintenance in Nigeria

The sustainability of Nigeria's federal highway network is increasingly undermined by persistent axle load violations among heavy goods vehicles (HGVs). Overloaded axles accelerate pavement deterioration, escalate lifecycle maintenance costs, and compromise freight system reliability. This study integrates engineering-based deterioration modelling with operations management principles to estimate pavement damage costs and develop a penalty-based financing framework. Using weigh-in-motion (WIM) systems, traffic and axle load data were collected across three freight-intensive corridors, namely Lokoja-Abuja, Ilorin-Jebba, and Abakaliki-Ogoja. Equivalent Single Axle Load (ESAL) analysis and econometric modelling were employed to quantify incremental damage and calibrate penalty functions. Findings reveal systemic overloading, with corridor-specific damage costs ranging from ₦0.74 to ₦5.70 per ESAL and violation rates exceeding 70% on high-intensity routes. A loglinear penalty model was developed, explaining over 80% of the variability in cost recovery estimates. The study demonstrates that monetizing axle load violations through calibrated penalties can transform enforcement into a sustainable financing mechanism. The contribution lies in extending operations management theory by embedding asset management, externality internalization, and game-theoretic principles into road infrastructure governance. The proposed model offers a scalable framework for enhancing infrastructure resilience, optimizing maintenance funding, and improving regulatory compliance in Nigeria and other Sub-Saharan African economies.