Ophthalmology Workforce Projections in the United States, 2020-2035.

OBJECTIVE To analyze ophthalmology workforce supply and demand projections from 2020 to 2035 DESIGN: Observational cohort studying using data from the National Center for Health Workforce Analysis (NCHWA) METHODS: Data accessed from the Department of Health and Human Services, Health Resources and Services Administration (HRSA) website were compiled to analyze the workforce supply and demand projections for ophthalmologists from 2020 to 2035. RESULTS From 2020 to 2035, the total ophthalmology supply is projected to decrease by 2,650 full-time equivalent ophthalmologists (FTE) (12% decline), and total demand projected to increase by 5,150 FTE (24% increase), representing a supply and demand mismatch of 30% workforce inadequacy. The level of inadequacy was markedly different based on rurality by year 2035 with 77% compared to 29% workforce adequacy in metro and nonmetro geographies, respectively. By year 2035, ophthalmology is projected to have the second lowest rate of workforce adequacy (70%) out of 38 medical and surgical specialties studied. CONCLUSIONS The HRSA's Health Workforce Simulation Model forecasts a sizeable shortage of ophthalmology supply relative to demand by year 2035, with substantial geographic disparities. Ophthalmology is one of the medical specialties with the lowest rate of projected workforce adequacy by 2035. Further dedicated workforce supply and demand research for ophthalmology and allied professionals is needed to validate these projections and may have significant future implications for patients and providers.