Assessment of efficiency improvement and emission mitigation potentials in China’s petroleum refining industry

Abstract The petroleum refining industry is an important energy conversion sector, providing both products and raw materials to a wide range of end-use sectors, including the transportation and chemical industries. This study uses a typical refinery process flow to develop a complex refining system by characterizing technical features and interrelationships of the refining units. Using this system we were able to develop the MESSAGEix-petroleum refining model to analyze energy consumption and emissions at the refining process level. The results indicate that China’s petroleum refining industry could reduce total energy use, circulation water consumption, and softened water consumption by 12%, 7%, and 80%, respectively. Additionally, the petroleum refining industry could reduce CO2, NOx, SO2, and PM2.5 emissions by 10%, 4%, 2%, and 1%, respectively, by 2050. However, emission sources have a significant influence on the emission reduction effect, and the reduction potential obtained through energy efficiency strategies is limited, especially for air pollutants. Therefore, policymakers should consider combining energy-efficiency measures and specific air pollution control options to better reach multiple targets. Finally, further directions for enhancing the representation of relevant subsectors in MESSAGEix are given.