What would it take for renewably powered electrosynthesis to displace petrochemical processes?

BACKGROUND As the world continues to transition toward carbon emissions–free energy technologies, there remains a need to also reduce the carbon emissions of the chemical production industry. Today many of the world’s chemicals are produced from fossil fuel–derived feedstocks. Electrochemical conversion of carbon dioxide (CO2) into chemical feedstocks offers a way to turn waste emissions into valuable products, closing the carbon loop. When coupled to renewable sources of electricity, these products can be made with a net negative carbon emissions footprint, helping to sequester CO2 into usable goods. Research and development into electrocatalytic materials for CO2 reduction has intensified in recent years, with advances in selectivity, efficiency, and reaction rate progressing toward practical implementation. A variety of chemical products can be made from CO2, such as alcohols, oxygenates, synthesis gas (syngas), and olefins—staples in the global chemical industry. Because these products are produced at substantial scale, a switch to renewably powered production could result in a substantial carbon emissions reduction impact. The advancement of electrochemical technology to convert electrons generated from renewable power into stable chemical form also represents one avenue to long-term (e.g., seasonal) storage of energy. ADVANCES The science of electrocatalytic CO2 reduction continues to progress, with priority given to the need to pinpoint more accurately the targets for practical application, the economics of chemical products, and barriers to market entry. It will be important to scale CO2 electrolyzers and increase the stability of these catalysts to thousands of hours of continuous operation. Product separation and efficient recycling of CO2 and electrolyte also need to be managed. The petrochemical industry operates at a massive scale with a complicated global supply chain and heavy capital costs. Commodity chemical markets are difficult to penetrate and are priced on feedstock, which is currently inexpensive as a result of the shale gas boom. CO2 capture costs from the flue or direct air and product separation from unreacted CO2 are also important to consider. Assuming that the advancement of electrocatalytic technologies continues apace, what will it take to disrupt the chemical production sector, and what will society gain by doing so? This review presents a technoeconomic and carbon emissions assessment of CO2 products such as ethylene, ethanol, and carbon monoxide, offering target figures of merit for practical application. The price of electricity is by far the largest cost driver. Electrochemical production costs begin to match those of traditional fossil fuel–derived processes when electricity prices fall below 4 cents per kWh and energy conversion efficiencies reach at least 60%. When powered by renewable electricity, these products can be made with a net negative carbon emissions footprint. A comparative analysis of electrocatalytic, biocatalytic, and fossil fuel–derived chemical production shows that electrocatalytic production has the potential to yield the greatest reduction in carbon emissions, provided that a steady supply of clean electricity is available. Additionally, opportunities exist to combine electrochemical conversion of CO2 with a range of other thermo- and biocatalytic processes to slowly electrify the existing petrochemical supply chain and further upgrade CO2 into more useful chemicals. Technical challenges such as operating lifetime, energy efficiency, and product separation are discussed. Supply chain management of products and entrenched industrial petrochemical competition are also considered. OUTLOOK There exists increasingly widespread recognition of the need to transition to carbon emissions–free means of chemical production. CO2 pricing mechanisms are being developed and are seeing increased governmental support. The nascent carbon utilization economy is gaining traction, with startup companies, global prizes, and industrial research efforts all pursuing new carbon conversion technologies. Recent advances in electrochemical CO2 reduction through the use of gas diffusion electrodes are pushing current densities and selectivities into a realm of industrial use. Despite this progress, there remain technical challenges that must be overcome for commercial application. Additionally, market barriers and cost economics will ultimately decide whether this technology experiences widespread implementation. Electrochemical CO2 conversion. Reduction of CO2 using renewably sourced electricity could transform waste CO2 emissions into commodity chemical feedstocks or fuels. Electrocatalytic transformation of carbon dioxide (CO2) and water into chemical feedstocks offers the potential to reduce carbon emissions by shifting the chemical industry away from fossil fuel dependence. We provide a technoeconomic and carbon emission analysis of possible products, offering targets that would need to be met for economically compelling industrial implementation to be achieved. We also provide a comparison of the projected costs and CO2 emissions across electrocatalytic, biocatalytic, and fossil fuel–derived production of chemical feedstocks. We find that for electrosynthesis to become competitive with fossil fuel–derived feedstocks, electrical-to-chemical conversion efficiencies need to reach at least 60%, and renewable electricity prices need to fall below 4 cents per kilowatt-hour. We discuss the possibility of combining electro- and biocatalytic processes, using sequential upgrading of CO2 as a representative case. We describe the technical challenges and economic barriers to marketable electrosynthesized chemicals. Science, this issue p. eaav3506