Drivers of improved PM2.5 air quality in China from 2013 to 2017

Significance The high frequency of haze pollution in China has attracted broad attention and triggered, in 2013, the promulgation of the toughest-ever clean air policy in the country. In this study, we quantified the air quality and health benefits from specific clean air actions by combining a chemical transport model with a detailed emission inventory. As tremendous efforts and resources are needed for mitigating emissions from various sources, evaluation of the effectiveness of these measures can provide crucial information for developing air quality policies in China as well as in other developing and highly polluting countries. Based on measure-specific analysis, our results bear out several important implications for designing future clean air policies. From 2013 to 2017, with the implementation of the toughest-ever clean air policy in China, significant declines in fine particle (PM2.5) concentrations occurred nationwide. Here we estimate the drivers of the improved PM2.5 air quality and the associated health benefits in China from 2013 to 2017 based on a measure-specific integrated evaluation approach, which combines a bottom-up emission inventory, a chemical transport model, and epidemiological exposure-response functions. The estimated national population–weighted annual mean PM2.5 concentrations decreased from 61.8 (95%CI: 53.3–70.0) to 42.0 µg/m3 (95% CI: 35.7–48.6) in 5 y, with dominant contributions from anthropogenic emission abatements. Although interannual meteorological variations could significantly alter PM2.5 concentrations, the corresponding effects on the 5-y trends were relatively small. The measure-by-measure evaluation indicated that strengthening industrial emission standards (power plants and emission-intensive industrial sectors), upgrades on industrial boilers, phasing out outdated industrial capacities, and promoting clean fuels in the residential sector were major effective measures in reducing PM2.5 pollution and health burdens. These measures were estimated to contribute to 6.6- (95% CI: 5.9–7.1), 4.4- (95% CI: 3.8–4.9), 2.8- (95% CI: 2.5–3.0), and 2.2- (95% CI: 2.0–2.5) µg/m3 declines in the national PM2.5 concentration in 2017, respectively, and further reduced PM2.5-attributable excess deaths by 0.37 million (95% CI: 0.35–0.39), or 92% of the total avoided deaths. Our study confirms the effectiveness of China’s recent clean air actions, and the measure-by-measure evaluation provides insights into future clean air policy making in China and in other developing and polluting countries.