A Spatial Econometric Analysis of Fiscal Expenditure and Urban Public Facility Land Use on County-Level In-Migration in Taiwan

This study employs panel data from 22 counties and cities in Taiwan spanning the years 2000 to 2023, applying spatial econometric models to examine the effects of fiscal expenditure and urban public facility land use on county-level in-migration. The analysis adopts the Spatial Durbin Model (SDM) and further decomposes the results into direct, indirect (spillover), and total effects to capture the spatial interactions of migration flows. The empirical findings indicate that expenditure on education, science, and culture significantly enhances the attractiveness of counties for in-migration, while social welfare expenditure exhibits notable cross-regional spillover effects. In contrast, spending on community development and environmental protection, as well as the total area of roads and parks, shows a negative association with in-migration, likely reflecting pressures from urbanization, rising land use intensity, and higher living costs. Importantly, per capita accessible green and recreational spaces—including parks, green areas, playgrounds, and plazas—demonstrate significant positive effects, underscoring that the equitable distribution and accessibility of public facilities play a more decisive role in influencing population movements than their aggregate quantity. JEL classification numbers: C21, C23, R53. Keywords: Spatial Durbin Model, Fiscal Expenditure, Urban Public Facility Land Use, Internal Migration, Spatial Spillover Effects.