Study on Green Development and Economic Development Evaluation of Shandong Provincial Capital Economic Circle

In the context of global climate change and intensified resource and environmental constraints, the coordinated advancement of green development and economic growth has become a core issue for regional sustainable development. This paper focuses on the Shandong Provincial Capital Economic Zone (Jinan City (A), Dongying City (E), Zibo City (C), Tai'an City (J), Liaocheng City (P), Binzhou City (M), Dezhou City (N)) as the study area. Based on panel data from 2013 to 2022, a dual-layer indicator system for green development and economic development is constructed. Using entropy value methods, coupling coordination degree models, and time-space analysis techniques, this study explores the coupling relationship and temporal-spatial characteristics of regional green development and economic development. The research findings indicate: (1) Over time, E's green development fluctuates downward, while A and C stabilize. M briefly recovers but then declines, and J, N, and P remain low for a long period. In terms of economic development, E maintains a high level with a slight increase, A and C steadily improve, while the other four cities remain at low levels. System coordination shows significant differentiation, with E consistently>0.75, A and C rising from 0.6-0.7 to 0.7-0.8, and M and the southwestern four cities consistently <0.6; (2) Spatially, green development exhibits a gradient distribution with higher levels in central and eastern regions and lower levels in southwestern regions. The economy centers around A, with C and E as secondary cores, and the other four cities being relatively weak; (3) All regions exhibit both high coupling degrees and moderate-to-low coordination degrees, reflecting the contradiction between "strong correlation and weak synergy" between green development and the economic system, which has become the core bottleneck constraining high-quality green development in the region. In response to the aforementioned issues, the study proposes implementing differentiated green development strategies and strengthening regional collaboration; promoting the construction of green industrial clusters and fostering new drivers of green growth; improving the green finance and technology innovation system to overcome resource and technological bottlenecks; empowering the application of green technologies through digitalization, enhancing systemic coordination efficiency, and providing practical pathways for regional green transformation.