Semantic Scholar Open Access 2022 3 sitasi

How is model-related uncertainty quantified and reported in different disciplines?

Emily G. Simmonds K. P. Adjei Christoffer Wold Andersen J. C. H. Aspheim Claudia Battistin +83 lainnya

Lihat Sumber DOI

Abstrak

: How do we know how much we know? Quantifying uncertainty associated with our modelling work is the only way we can answer how much we know about any phenomenon. With quantitative science now highly influential in the public sphere and the results from models translating into action, we must support our conclusions with sufficient rigour to produce useful, reproducible results. Incomplete consideration of model-based uncertainties can lead to false conclusions with real world impacts. Despite these potentially damaging consequences, uncertainty consideration is incomplete both within and across scientific fields. We take a unique interdisciplinary approach and conduct a systematic audit of model-related uncertainty quantification from seven scientific fields, spanning the biological, physical, and social sciences. Our results show no single field is achieving complete consideration of model uncertainties, but together we can fill the gaps. We propose opportunities to improve the quantification of uncertainty through use of a source framework for uncertainty consideration, model type specific guidelines, improved presentation, and shared best practice. We also identify shared outstanding challenges (uncertainty in input data, balancing trade-offs, error propagation, and defining how much uncertainty is required). Finally, we make nine concrete recommendations for current practice (following good practice guidelines and an uncertainty checklist, presenting uncertainty numerically, and propagating model-related uncertainty into conclusions), future research priorities (uncertainty in input data, quantifying uncertainty in complex models, and the importance of missing uncertainty in different contexts), and general research standards across the sciences (transparency about study limitations and dedicated uncertainty sections of manuscripts).

Topik & Kata Kunci

Mathematics Physics Biology

Penulis (88)

Emily G. Simmonds

K. P. Adjei

Christoffer Wold Andersen

J. C. H. Aspheim

Claudia Battistin

Nicola Bulso

H. Christensen

Benjamin Cretois

Ryan Cubero

Iv'an A. Davidovich

Lisa Dickel

Benjamin Dunn

E. Dunn‐Sigouin

Karin Dyrstad

S. Einum

D. Giglio

Haakon Gjerløw

Amélie Godefroidt

Ricardo González-Gil

Soledad Gonzalo Cogno

Fabian Große

Paul Halloran

M. Jensen

J. Kennedy

Peter Egge Langsaether

Jack H. Laverick

Debora Lederberger

Camille Li

Elizabeth G. Mandeville

C. Mandeville

E. Moe

T. Schroder

D. Nunan

J. Parada

M. Simpson

Emma Skarstein

C. Spensberger

Richard J. Stevens

A. Subramanian

Lea Svendsen

Ole Magnus Theisen

Connor Watret

R. B. O. D. O. M. Sciences

Norwegian University of Science

Technology

The Fritz Haber Center for Molecular Dynamics

Department of Sociology

Political Science

Kavli Institute for Systems Neuroscience

Centre for Neural Computation

Atmospheric

Oceanic

Planetary Physics

U. Oxford

Miljodate

Norwegian Institute for Nature Research

Department of Medical Biology

G. Institute

Universityof Bergen

Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research

U. C. A. Boulder

Peace Research Institute Oslo

D. O. Mathematics

Statistics

U. Strathclyde

D. .. Ecology

Federal Institute of Hydrology

Germany

College of Life

E. Sciences

U. Exeter

Department of Materials Science

Metals Office

Department of Materials Science

U. Oslo

Schweizerisches Epilepsie Zentrum

Klinik Lengg

Zurich

Switzerland.

College of Materials Science

University of Guelph

Department of Natural History

Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences

D. Health

Nursing

Clinical Research Unit Central Norway

S. Hospital

Format Sitasi

APA MLA BibTeX

Simmonds, E.G., Adjei, K.P., Andersen, C.W., Aspheim, J.C.H., Battistin, C., Bulso, N. et al. (2022). How is model-related uncertainty quantified and reported in different disciplines?. https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2206.12179

@article{simmonds2022, author = {Emily G. Simmonds and K. P. Adjei and Christoffer Wold Andersen and J. C. H. Aspheim and Claudia Battistin and Nicola Bulso and H. Christensen and Benjamin Cretois and Ryan Cubero and Iv'an A. Davidovich and Lisa Dickel and Benjamin Dunn and E. Dunn‐Sigouin and Karin Dyrstad and S. Einum and D. Giglio and Haakon Gjerløw and Amélie Godefroidt and Ricardo González-Gil and Soledad Gonzalo Cogno and Fabian Große and Paul Halloran and M. Jensen and J. Kennedy and Peter Egge Langsaether and Jack H. Laverick and Debora Lederberger and Camille Li and Elizabeth G. Mandeville and C. Mandeville and E. Moe and T. Schroder and D. Nunan and J. Parada and M. Simpson and Emma Skarstein and C. Spensberger and Richard J. Stevens and A. Subramanian and Lea Svendsen and Ole Magnus Theisen and Connor Watret and R. B. O. D. O. M. Sciences and Norwegian University of Science and Technology and The Fritz Haber Center for Molecular Dynamics and Department of Sociology and Political Science and Kavli Institute for Systems Neuroscience and Centre for Neural Computation and Atmospheric and Oceanic and Planetary Physics and U. Oxford and Miljodate and Norwegian Institute for Nature Research and Department of Medical Biology and G. Institute and Universityof Bergen and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research and U. C. A. Boulder and Peace Research Institute Oslo and D. O. Mathematics and Statistics and U. Strathclyde and D. .. Ecology and Federal Institute of Hydrology and Germany and College of Life and E. Sciences and U. Exeter and Department of Materials Science and Metals Office and Uk and Department of Materials Science and U. Oslo and Schweizerisches Epilepsie Zentrum and Klinik Lengg and Zurich and Switzerland. and College of Materials Science and University of Guelph and Department of Natural History and Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences and D. Health and Nursing and Clinical Research Unit Central Norway and S. Hospital}, title = {How is model-related uncertainty quantified and reported in different disciplines?}, year = {2022}, journal = {Semantic Scholar}, doi = {10.48550/arXiv.2206.12179}, url = {https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/2992e85670f12324c302c84528e541399f6fc7fb}, }

Akses Cepat

Lihat di Sumber doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2206.12179

Informasi Jurnal

Tahun Terbit: 2022
Bahasa: en
Total Sitasi: 3×
Sumber Database: Semantic Scholar
DOI: 10.48550/arXiv.2206.12179
Akses: Open Access ✓