Business Leadership in the Construction Industry: The Role of Public-Private Interaction and Price, Investment, Labor, and Institutional Determinants of Development

The article is devoted to analyzing the role of business leadership and public-private interaction in shaping the development trajectories of Ukraine’s construction industry. The purpose of the study is to develop and test an integrated analytical framework that combines econometric modeling, a Business Leadership Index (BLI), and scenario forecasting to identify key determinants of sectoral growth. The methodological basis includes a multifactor regression model (price, investment, labor, and institutional variables), the construction of the Business Leadership Index for leading companies, regional clustering of construction activity, and scenario forecasting based on a 5D model (Demand, Development, Delivery, Digitalization, Durability). Model verification using back-testing on 2018–2021 data showed deviations within only 7–9 %, confirming its reliability, while forward-testing provided forecast estimates up to 2028. The results demonstrated that strategic companies with a high level of innovation, ESG compliance, and participation in public-private projects act as catalysts of recovery, whereas regional asymmetries require differentiated policy measures. A comparison with Central and Eastern European countries revealed Ukraine’s excessive dependence on state financing (>35 % versus 12–18 % in EU countries), highlighting the need to activate private capital. The scientific novelty of the study lies in combining index-based and scenario approaches, while its practical significance is determined by the possibility of applying the findings in public policy, corporate strategies, and international reconstruction support programs.