Robots and the substitution effect: some reflections

The essay proposes a reconstruction of the main quantitative and qualitative theories that have emerged in economics about the impacts on the labour market deriving from the progressive replacement of human labour by robots. In light of this, the Author acknowledges several interpretative lines observed in the industry for about a decade. Such an analysis is functional to investigate how the process of man-machine substitution (or its threat) responds not exclusively to deterministic logic linked to technological progress. Instead, it closely intertwines with strategic choices originating in processes that characterise labour law and industrial relations, particularly affecting the determination of the working conditions of underqualified and, thus, more easily replaceable workers. Indeed, if the regulation of the phenomenon were determined solely by mercantile interests, this would present a risk to the very stability of the welfare state. Therefore, it is urgent to activate the protection techniques offered by labour law to encourage the spread of robotics that, instead of aiming at replacing workers tout court, aspires to make their work less burdensome and, thus, more dignified.