NONLINEAR BANK RISK APPETITE UNDER ECONOMIC POLICY UNCERTAINTY: THE ROLE OF REGULATORY QUALITY AND DEPOSIT INSURANCE

Economic policy uncertainty has been increasing globally, with consequences for financial sector stability. This paper investigates its influence on the risk-taking behavior of banks. The study examines the functional form of responses of banks to economic policy uncertainty and explores how regulatory quality and safety nets change bank behavior in periods of high uncertainty. We utilize data from 1999 to 2023 of 796 banks in 21 countries, employing a quadratic two-step system GMM estimation technique to evaluate the impact of economic policy uncertainty on banks' risk-taking. Using the U-test, we confirm the nonlinear relationship and identify its threshold point. Finally, we show the consistency of the estimates by controlling for multiple major crisis periods during the sample period. We find that economic policy uncertainty generally increases risk-taking among banks. However, beyond a certain point, further increases in economic policy uncertainty could lead to diminishing returns and heightened risk aversion, resulting in decreased risk-taking behavior. Stronger regulatory quality mitigates this effect; however, the reduction in risk-taking is less pronounced when economic policy uncertainty increases. Safetynets moderate the relationship by impacting bank risk-taking sensitivity. Additionally, we find cross-country heterogeneity in the size of economic policy uncertainty and risk-taking. Lastly, we find that the nonlinear effects are robust after controlling for major events like the global financial crisis, the eurozone crisis, COVID-19, and the Ukraine war. We provide evidence of nonlinearity in the nexus of economic policy uncertainty, regulatory frameworks, safety nets, and bank risk-taking behavior. The findings underscore the significance of robust regulatory quality and safety nets in moderating banks' risk-taking behavior during economic policy uncertainty.