DOAJ Open Access 2021

How to Interpret Covid-19 Predictions

S. Andrew Schroeder

Abstrak

The IHME Covid-19 prediction model has been one of the most influential Covid models in the United States. Early on, it received heavy criticism for understating the extent of the epidemic. I argue that this criticism was based on a misunderstanding of the model. The model was best interpreted not as attempting to forecast the actual course of the epidemic. Rather, it was attempting to make a conditional projection: telling us how the epidemic would unfold, given certain assumptions. This misunderstanding of the IHME’s model prevented the public from seeing how dire the model’s projections actually were.

Topik & Kata Kunci

Medical philosophy. Medical ethics

Penulis (1)

S. Andrew Schroeder

Format Sitasi

APA MLA BibTeX

Schroeder, S.A. (2021). How to Interpret Covid-19 Predictions. https://doi.org/10.5195/pom.2021.43

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Informasi Jurnal

Tahun Terbit: 2021
Sumber Database: DOAJ
DOI: 10.5195/pom.2021.43
Akses: Open Access ✓