Impact of Omicron COVID-19 restrictions on air transport and tourism to and from South Africa

Background: The governments of important tourist source markets imposed additional travel restrictions (the Omicron restrictions) to South Africa (and neighbouring states) as a result of the identification of the Omicron variant of COVID-19 in South Africa. These restrictions interrupted and paused the recovery in international and regional passenger traffic to and from South Africa and its neighbouring states. Objectives: To determine the impact of Omicron-related air travel restrictions on passenger demand, the number of flights operated (supply of services), average passenger loads carried and salient tourism indicators. Method: The study identifies the monthly number of passengers and flights operated before and immediately following the imposition and lifting of Omicron-related travel restrictions. The counterfactual, to determine the traffic and tourism recovery would have been had these restrictions not been imposed is made by interpolation. Results: Significant decreases in the annual number of passengers carried, flights operated and the average loads of passengers were identified within two geographic areas, international and regional traffic, on over-border flights affected by Omicron restrictions and the impact on tourism and employment. Conclusion: The Omicron restrictions interrupted the recovery trend that started to emerge and caused a decline in passenger and tourism flows, tourism spending and employment. Contribution: The study determines the impact of the Omicron restrictions on South Africa to prevent rapid government overreaction where the causation of contagion is not objectively demonstrated.