Technology Foresight on Emerging Technologies: Implications for a National Innovation Initiative in Brazil

Prospective studies about emerging technologies and their implications for public policy formulation indicate critical choices ranging from global to national level, even to the individual firm or institution. Emerging technologies have been shaping the future of some industries and transforming many others. In many cases, these technologies will determine the restructuring of industries as never before. Specially designed for enabling better planning and future decisions, technology foresight (TF) methods are used to foresee diffusion of innovations, mapping out commercially viable roadmaps for technological development. This paper is concerned with a methodological instrument adopted in Brazil as support for building the Agenda for a National Innovation Initiative (NII), which was articulated by government, universities, R&D institutions, and private firms. It presents and discusses an integrated methodological approach for a TF study, specially designed for the purpose of this Brazilian innovation policy instrument, concerning three emerging technologies – nanotechnology, biotechnology, and information and communication technologies (ICT).