Ukraine’s Chances of Victory Under Trump’s Presidency

This article explores the potential consequences of Donald Trump’s return to the presidency on the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, with particular emphasis on the resulting geopolitical shifts and implications for global security. The analysis examines Trump’s stated positions, proposed peace plans, and their reception in both Kyiv and Moscow, shedding light on how his rhetoric and strategy may reshape the trajectory of the conflict. It further contextualizes his approach within broader transatlantic dynamics, including NATO’s cohesion, European defense initiatives, and the global response to a reoriented U.S. foreign policy. By highlighting Trump’s preference for transactional diplomacy, skepticism toward multilateralism, and emphasis on bilateral negotiations, the article considers how these tendencies may accelerate a reordering of the international system and challenge the existing liberal order. The discussion also assesses the potential ramifications for U.S. alliances and regional stability in Eastern Europe. The article concludes that while Trump’s promises of a swift peace may have rhetorical appeal, their implementation could intensify volatility and long-term insecurity in the region and beyond.