Potential Threat Assessment and Degree of Exposure in the event of an Explosion by Sudden Expansion of Boiling Liquid Vapor in the LPG Ground Storage Terminal in Monteverde, coastal Ecuador

The industrial complexes that handle dangerous products with flammable characteristics have been the cause of great misfortunes when sudden explosions are generated, either due to mechanical failures or human negligence. The Monteverde Gas Complex (MGC), located in the province of Santa Elena in Ecuador, represents a potential risk by housing close to 105,000 m3 of precursor gases such as Propane (PPN), Butane (BTN), and LPG finished product. Therefore, an analysis of the potential threat to which the population is exposed in case of the explosion of one of the tanks with the different products they contain has been carried out, considering the closest communes to the MGC, which are Monteverde and Jambelí. Tools such as the Probit method proposed by TNO (The Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research), and the ALOHA software of the EPA (Environmental Protection Agency, USA) were used, whose combinations allowed estimating the radius of influence, which were divided into zones according to the degree of impact on the community. The results demonstrated that the community of Monteverde, despite being more than 1 km away from the CGM, is within the red zone or high influence radius that corresponds to 2000 meters for propane and butane tanks. Whitin this area, a person could have fatal third-degree burns. The calculations have been performed under ideal conditions, so it is recommended to review the attenuations generated by natural elevations of the terrain or the direction of the wind in further studies