Economic growth and national security in the context of natural resource potential management

The study aims to conceptualise a model for managing natural resource potential that fosters both sustainable economic development and national security, using Ukraine as a primary case study. Employing a mixed-methods approach, the paper integrates national and international data on GDP, extraction and consumption of natural resources, resource rents, and security threat indices. Correlation analysis was conducted across 22 countries, alongside an in-depth examination of Ukraine’s energy and mineral resource dynamics from 2017 to 2023. The study identifies a strong positive relationship between economic growth and the share of resource rent in GDP across most countries, while also revealing Ukraine’s inefficient use of coal and energy resources, and a shifting correlation between security threats and economic performance pre- and post-war. Based on these findings, a conceptual model is proposed that emphasises the need for program-targeted and project-based governance, resource capitalisation, and institutional reform to enhance resilience and economic sovereignty.