Patterns of Loss: A Typology of Depopulating Cities in the USA

Urban depopulation has become an increasingly visible phenomenon worldwide, affecting cities of different sizes and economic structures. This article develops a typology of U.S. depopulating cities beyond the Rust Belt’s iconic industrial cities, which dominate academic literature, to include a wider range of shrinking settlements in the shadows. The analysis is based on a dataset of U.S. census places constructed from decennial census population data (1990–2020) combined with employment structure indicators and spatial classification variables identifying metropolitan position and industrial specialization. Using 1990–2020 population change and three explanatory dimensions—city size, industrial heritage, and peripheral location—the analysis identified 1082 places that lost at least 10% of their population. Logistic regression showed manufacturing and mining reliance, small size, and remoteness as significant predictors of depopulation. Based on these factors, settlements are divided into seven types, from large urban centers to small peripheral towns with fewer than 5000 people. The overwhelming predominance of small towns (97%) in the sample highlights their distinct development challenges and questions the narrative of decline focused solely on larger industrial cities. By situating American trajectories within the broader shrinking cities discourse, the findings demonstrate the value of typology as a methodological tool for identifying intra-group heterogeneity, capturing regional differences, and establishing a more reliable basis for comparative urban studies. Ultimately, the study shows that urban decline in the United States is not exclusively a Rust Belt phenomenon, but a multidimensional process encompassing different scales, sectors, and geographies.