Monthly Urban Electricity Power Consumption Prediction Using Nighttime Light Remote Sensing: A Case Study of the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration

Urban electricity power consumption (EPC) prediction plays a crucial role in urban management and sustainable development. Nighttime light (NTL) remote sensing imagery has demonstrated significant potential in estimating urban EPC due to its strong correlation with human activities and energy use. However, most existing models focus on annual-scale estimations, limiting their ability to capture month-scale EPC. To address this limitation, a novel monthly EPC prediction model that incorporates monthly average temperature, and the interaction between NTL data and temperature was proposed in this study. The proposed method was applied to cities within the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) urban agglomeration, and was validated using datasets constructed from NPP/VIIRS and SDGSAT-1 satellite imageries, respectively. For the NPP/VIIRS dataset, the proposed method achieved a Mean Absolute Relative Error (MARE) of 7.96% during the training phase (2017–2022) and of 10.38% during the prediction phase (2023), outperforming the comparative methods. Monthly EPC spatial distribution maps from VPP/VIIRS data were generated, which not only reflect the spatial patterns of EPC but also clearly illustrate the temporal evolution of EPC at the spatial level. Annual EPC estimates also showed superior accuracy compared to three comparative methods, achieving a MARE of 7.13%. For the SDGSAT-1 dataset, leave-one-out cross-validation confirmed the robustness of the model, and high-resolution (40 m) monthly EPC maps were generated, enabling the identification of power consumption zones and their spatial characteristics. The proposed method provides a timely and accurate means for capturing monthly EPC dynamics, effectively supporting the dynamic monitoring of urban EPC at the monthly scale in the YRD urban agglomeration.