DOAJ Open Access 2022

A New Mortality Framework to Identify Trends and Structural Changes in Mortality Improvement and Its Application in Forecasting

Wanying Fu Barry R. Smith Patrick Brewer Sean Droms

Abstrak

We construct a new age-specific mortality framework and implement an exemplar (DLGC) that provides an excellent fit to data from various countries and across long time periods while also providing accurate mortality forecasts by projecting parameters with ARIMA models. The model parameters have clear and reasonable interpretations that, after fitting, show stable time trends that react to major world mortality events. These trends are similar for countries with similar life-expectancies and capture mortality improvement, mortality structural change, and mortality compression over time. The parameter time plots can also be used to improve forecasting accuracy by suggesting training data periods and appropriate stochastic assumptions for parameters over time. We also give a quantitative analysis on what factors contribute to increased life expectancy and gender mortality differences during different age periods.

Topik & Kata Kunci

Insurance

Penulis (4)

Wanying Fu

Barry R. Smith

Patrick Brewer

Sean Droms

Format Sitasi

APA MLA BibTeX

Fu, W., Smith, B.R., Brewer, P., Droms, S. (2022). A New Mortality Framework to Identify Trends and Structural Changes in Mortality Improvement and Its Application in Forecasting. https://doi.org/10.3390/risks10080161

Akses Cepat

PDF tidak tersedia langsung

Cek di sumber asli →

Lihat di Sumber doi.org/10.3390/risks10080161

Informasi Jurnal

Tahun Terbit: 2022
Sumber Database: DOAJ
DOI: 10.3390/risks10080161
Akses: Open Access ✓