Landslide Disaster Vulnerability Assessment and Prediction Based on a Multi-Scale and Multi-Model Framework: Empirical Evidence from Yunnan Province, China

Against the backdrop of intensifying global climate change and expanding human encroachment into mountainous regions, landslides have increased markedly in both frequency and destructiveness, emerging as a key risk to socio-ecological security and development in mountain areas. Rigorous assessment and forward-looking prediction of landslide disaster vulnerability (LDV) are essential for targeted disaster risk reduction and regional sustainability. However, existing studies largely center on landslide susceptibility or risk, often overlooking the dynamic evolution of adaptive capacity within affected systems and its nonlinear responses across temporal and spatial scales, thereby obscuring the complex mechanisms underpinning LDV. To address this gap, we examine Yunnan Province, a landslide-prone region of China where intensified extreme rainfall and the expansion of human activities in recent years have exacerbated landslide risk. Drawing on the vulnerability scoping diagram (VSD), we construct an exposure–sensitivity–adaptive capacity assessment framework to characterize the spatiotemporal distribution of LDV during 2000–2020. We further develop a multi-model, multi-scale integrated prediction framework, benchmarking the predictive performance of four machine learning algorithms—backpropagation neural network (BPNN), support vector machine (SVM), random forest (RF), and XGBoost—across sample sizes ranging from 2500 to 360,000 to identify the optimal model–scale combination. From 2000 to 2020, LDV in Yunnan declined overall, exhibiting a spatial pattern of “higher in the northwest and lower in the southeast.” High-LDV areas decreased markedly, and sustained enhancement of adaptive capacity was the primary driver of the decline. At approximately the 90,000-cell grid scale, XGBoost performed best, robustly reproducing the observed spatiotemporal evolution and projecting continued declines in LDV during 2030–2050, albeit with decelerating improvement; low-LDV zones show phased fluctuations of “expansion followed by contraction”, whereas high-LDV zones continue to contract northwestward. The proposed multi-model, multi-scale fusion framework enhances the accuracy and robustness of LDV prediction, provides a scientific basis for precise disaster risk reduction strategies and resource optimization in Yunnan, and offers a quantitative reference for resilience building and policy design in analogous regions worldwide.