Two Decades of Urban Transformation and Heat Dynamics in a Desert Metropolis: Linking Land Cover, Demographics, and Surface Temperature

This study presents a spatially explicit, multidecadal analysis of how land use and land cover (LULC) change and socio-demographic dynamics have influenced land surface temperature (LST) patterns in the Phoenix metropolitan area between 2001 and 2021. Using Landsat-derived summer LST, socio-demographic indicators, and land cover data, we quantify urban land transformation and socio-demographic changes over two decades. To account for spatial heterogeneity, we apply Multiscale Geographically Weighted Regression (MGWR), which improves upon conventional regression models by allowing for variable-specific spatial scales. Results show that the 2001–2011 period was characterized by rapid suburban expansion and widespread conversion of croplands and open space to higher-intensity development, while 2011–2021 experienced more limited infill development. Correlation analysis reveals that agricultural and open space conversions were linked to population and housing growth, whereas redevelopment of existing urban areas was often associated with socio-demographic decline. MGWR results highlight that agricultural land conversion drives localized warming, while shrub/scrub-to-developed transitions are linked to broader-scale cooling. By combining spatial sampling, area-weighted interpolation, and MGWR, this study offers a fi-ne-grained assessment of urban thermal dynamics in a fast-growing desert region. The findings provide actionable insights for planners and policymakers working toward sustainable and climate-resilient urban development in arid environments.