Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Ecosystem Services and Human Well-Being in China’s Karst Regions: An Integrated Carbon Flow-Based Assessment

The relationship between ecosystem services (ESs) and human well-being (HWB) is a central issue of sustainable development. However, current research often relies on qualitative frameworks or indicator-based assessments, limiting a comprehensive understanding of the relationship between natural environment and human acquisition, which still needs to be strengthened. As an element transferred in the natural–society coupling system, carbon can assist in characterizing the dynamic interactions within coupled human–natural systems. Carbon, as a fundamental element transferred across ecological and social spheres, offers a powerful lens to characterize these linkages. This study develops and applies a novel analytical framework that integrates carbon flow as a unifying metric to quantitatively assess the spatiotemporal dynamics of the land use and land cover change (LUCC)–ESs–HWB nexus in Guizhou Province, China, from 2000 to 2020. The results show that: (1) Ecosystem services in Guizhou showed distinct trends from 2000 to 2020: supporting and regulating services declined and then recovered, and provisioning services steadily increased, while cultural services remained stable but varied across cities. (2) Human well-being generally improved over time, with health remaining stable and the HSI rising across most cities, although security levels fluctuated and remained low in some areas. (3) The contribution of ecosystem services to human well-being peaked in 2010–2015, followed by declines in central and northern regions, while southern and western areas maintained or improved their levels. (4) Supporting and regulating services were positively correlated with HWB security, while cultural services showed mixed effects, with strong synergies between culture and health in cities like Liupanshui and Qiandongnan. Overall, this study quantified the coupled dynamics between ecosystem services and human well-being through a carbon flow framework, which not only offers a unified metric for cross-dimensional analysis but also reduces subjective bias in evaluation. This integrated approach provides critical insights for crafting spatially explicit land management policies in Guizhou and offers a replicable methodology for exploring sustainable development pathways in other ecologically fragile karst regions worldwide. Compared with conventional ecosystem service frameworks, the carbon flow approach provides a process-based, dynamic mediator that quantifies biogeochemical linkages in LUCC–ESs–HWB systems, which is particularly important in fragile karst regions. However, we acknowledge that further empirical comparison with traditional ESs metrics could strengthen the framework’s generalizability.