Value and Limitations of Drift Modelling for Reconstructing the Loss of the Trawler <i>Ravenel</i>

The disappearance of the trawler <i>Ravenel</i> in January 1962, resulting in the loss of fifteen men from the Saint-Pierre-and-Miquelon archipelago, has long remained unresolved. This study integrates archival documentation, eyewitness testimony, atmospheric and oceanic reanalyses, and probabilistic drift modelling to reconstruct the circumstances of the loss and to constrain the wreck location. Backward and forward drift simulations were conducted using the MOTHY sea-drift model, incorporating high-resolution tidal dynamics and wind forcing from ERA-20C and ERA5 reanalysis. Results show that uncertainty in debris stranding time exerts a much stronger influence on reconstructed drift paths than uncertainty in stranding location. The discovery of the wreck in May 2025 enabled forward simulations that indicated a most probable sinking time, with ERA5 producing debris stranding times consistent with historical observations. These results confirm the predictive skill of the modelling framework while highlighting remaining uncertainties regarding the sequence of events preceding the sinking.