Intelligent Optimization of Waypoints on the Great Ellipse Routes for Arctic Navigation and Segmental Safety Assessment

A great ellipse route (GER), as one of the fundamental routes for ocean voyages, directly influences the actual voyage distance and the complexity of vessel maneuvering through the location and number of its waypoints. Against the backdrop of global warming, the melting of Arctic sea ice has accelerated the opening of the Arctic shipping route. This paper addresses the issue of how to reasonably segment and adopt rhumb line routes to approximate the GER in the special navigational environment of the Arctic. Using historical routes, recommended routes, and geospatial data that have passed through the Arctic shipping lane as constraints, this paper proposes a waypoint optimization model based on an adaptive hybrid particle swarm optimization-genetic algorithm (AHPSOGA). Additionally, by integrating Arctic remote sensing ice condition data and the Polar Operational Limit Assessment Risk Indexing System (POLARIS), a safety assessment model tailored for this route has been developed, enabling the quantification of sea ice risks and dynamic evaluation of segment safety. Experimental results indicate that the proposed waypoint optimization model reduces the number of waypoints and voyage distance compared to recommended routes and conventional shipping industry methods. Furthermore, the AHPSOGA algorithm achieves a 16.41% and 19.19% improvement in convergence speed compared to traditional GA and PSO algorithms, respectively. In terms of computational efficiency, the average runtime is improved by approximately 12.00% and 14.53%, respectively. The risk levels of each segment of the optimized route are comparable to those of the recommended Northeast Passage route. This study provides an effective theoretical foundation and technical support for intelligent planning and decision-making for Arctic shipping routes.