Machine Learning-Based Binary Classification Models for Low Ice-Class Vessels Navigation Risk Assessment

The presence of sea ice threatens low ice-class vessels’ navigation safety in the Arctic, and traditional Navigation Risk Assessment Models based on sea ice parameters have been widely used to guide safe passages for ships operating in ice regions. However, these models mainly rely on empirical coefficients, and the accuracy of these models in identifying sea ice navigation risk remains insufficiently validated. Therefore, under the binary classification framework, this study used Automatic Identification System (AIS) data along the Northeast Passage (NEP) as positive samples, manual interpretation non-navigable data as negative samples, a total of 10 machine learning (ML) models were employed to capture the complex relationships between ice conditions and navigation risk for Polar Class (PC) 6 and Open Water (OW) vessels. The results showed that compared to traditional Navigation Risk Assessment Models, most of the 10 ML models exhibited significantly improved classification accuracy, which was especially pronounced when classifying samples of PC6 vessel. This study also revealed that the navigability of the East Siberian Sea (ESS) and the Vilkitsky Strait along the NEP is relatively poor, particularly during the month when sea ice melts and reforms, requiring special attention. The navigation risk output by ML models is strongly determined by sea ice thickness. These findings offer valuable insights for enhancing the safety and efficiency of Arctic maritime transport.