Research on Uncertainty Evolution of Ship Collision Status Based on Navigation Environment

There is a need to study the evolutionary laws of the risks in the navigation environments of complex marine areas. This can promote shipping safety using an early-warning system. The present study determines shipping flows and meteorological conditions in a marine area on the basis of meteorological and automatic identification system (AIS) data. It also determines the uncertainty evolution law of the navigation environment’s influencing factors. Moreover, a navigation risk evolution system for ships in complex marine areas was developed. A case study was carried out in a coastal area of China on the basis of the determined evolutionary laws. Evolution in the navigational environment risk within the case study area was analyzed. The results showed that the hydrometeorology wind factor has the greatest impact on the risk of ship collisions. This work was not only able to show advances in navigational collision environmental evolution laws but also provides a theoretical reference for the evaluation and early warning of risks in shipping environments.