Spatio-Temporal Occurrence Modeling of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Subtype H5N1: A Case Study in the Red River Delta, Vietnam
Abstrak
Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) subtype H5N1 poses severe threats to both animals and humans. Investigating where, when and why the disease occurs is important to help animal health authorities develop effective control policies. This study takes into account spatial and temporal occurrence of HPAI H5N1 in the Red River Delta of Vietnam. A two-stage procedure was used: (1) logistic regression modeling to identify and quantify factors influencing the occurrence of HPAI H5N1; and (2) a geostatistical approach to develop monthly predictive maps. The results demonstrated that higher average monthly temperatures and poultry density in combination with lower average monthly precipitation, humidity in low elevation areas, roughly from November to January and April to June, contribute to the higher occurrence of HPAI H5N1. Provinces near the Gulf of Tonkin, including Hai Phong, Hai Duong, Thai Binh, Nam Dinh and Ninh Binh are areas with higher probability of occurrence of HPAI H5N1.
Topik & Kata Kunci
Penulis (6)
Chinh C. Tran
Russell S. Yost
John F. Yanagida
Sumeet Saksena
Jefferson Fox
Nargis Sultana
Akses Cepat
- Tahun Terbit
- 2013
- Sumber Database
- DOAJ
- DOI
- 10.3390/ijgi2041106
- Akses
- Open Access ✓