Rapid Prediction for Overburden Caving Zone of Underground Excavations

Underground coal gasification (UCG) is an emerging energy technology that involves the in situ conversion of coal into syngas through controlled combustion within a subsurface excavation. The geomechanical processes associated with UCG can lead to significant overburden caving and surface subsidence, posing risks to surface infrastructure and groundwater systems. To accurately predict the size of overburden caving zones and associated surface subsidence, a prediction model was developed based on simulation results using discrete element method (DEM) numerical models. The main purpose of developing such a model is to establish a systematic and computationally efficient method for the rapid prediction of the height of overburden caving and its associated surface subsidence induced by underground excavation. The model is broadly applicable to different types of underground excavations, and UCG is used in this study as a representative application scenario to demonstrate the relevance and performance of the model. Sensitivity analysis indicates that excavation span, tensile strength, and burial depth are the primary controls on the height of the caving zone within the ranges of parameters investigated. Rock density is retained as a secondary background parameter to represent gravitational loading and its contribution to the in situ stress level. The derived model was validated using published numerical, experimental, and field measurement data, showing good agreement within practical ranges. To further demonstrate the application of the model developed, the predicted caving geometries were incorporated into finite element method (FEM) models to simulate surface subsidence under different geological conditions. The results highlight that the arch structure formed by overburden caving can help redistribute stresses and thereby reduce surface deformation. The proposed model provides a practical, parameter-driven tool to assist in underground excavation design, environmental risk evaluation, and ground stability management.