Evaluating the Conduciveness of the Policy Environment for Deploying Sustainable Renewable Energy Mini-Grids in Lesotho

Universal electricity access remains elusive in Lesotho, with only a 53% connection rate. This statistic highlights a significant urban–rural gap of 60% to 18%, favouring urban areas mainly served by the main grid. The rugged terrain renders extending the grid to most rural areas impractical. To address this, the energy policy and electrification master plans aim to leverage abundant renewable energy resources and deploy mini-grids in rural regions. However, progress has been slow since the first advanced mini-grid projects began in 2018. The paper reviewed policy and framework documents from 2010 to 2025 that are pertinent to the deployment of mini-grids. It employed a hybrid qualitative-quantitative approach of SWOT-TOWS-AHP, which is rarely applied in energy policy analysis. It used the SWOT analysis tool to identify the Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats faced in implementing sustainable renewable energy mini-grids. This was followed by the TOWS-AHP (Threats, Opportunities, Weaknesses, and Strengths-Analytical Hierarchy Process) method to develop strategies that utilize strengths and seize opportunities while tackling weaknesses and mitigating threats. These strategies were ranked based on their potential impact on mini-grid deployment. Despite supporting policies for mini-grids, the lack of political will from the government has emerged as a major obstacle. The three top strategies suggested to accelerate the deployment of sustainable mini-grids and advance efforts to achieve Sustainable Development Goal no. 7 by 2030 are establishing a mini-grid financing fund, reviewing the mini-grid regulatory framework, and reforming rural electrification institutions to improve coordination and collaboration. The top strategies carry weights of 8.5%, 7.8%, and 7.7%, respectively.