Industrial Waste Heat Utilization Potential in China: Measurement and Impacts on Carbon Peaking and Carbon Neutrality Pathways

As the goal of carbon peak and carbon neutrality becomes a global consensus, the circular economy is gradually evolving from an environmental concept to a core lever for national strategy and industrial transformation. To achieve green and low-carbon development, China is accelerating the construction of a circular economy system, particularly in the fields of resource recycling and utilization. Industrial waste heat, a strategically critical supplementary energy resource, performs a pivotal role in advancing the circular economy. Based on an energy technology coupling model, this study assesses the waste heat utilization potential in China and quantitatively measures its impact on energy conservation and carbon reduction. The results show that: (1) The potential of industrial waste heat in China is characterized by an inverted U-shaped trajectory. Over the near-to-medium term, the steel and power industries remain the primary contributors to waste heat utilization potential. (2) Low-grade waste heat represents the majority of utilization potential in China’s industrial sector, mainly from power generation, fuel processing, and steel manufacturing. The model results indicate that the proportion of low temperature waste heat will increase from approximately 66% in 2025 to 83% in 2060. (3) Waste heat utilization significantly influences the energy transition pathway. The findings of this study demonstrate that energy-intensive industries have the potential to reduce primary energy consumption by more than 13%. Moreover, making full use of waste heat could accelerate China’s carbon peaking target to 2028, and reduce peak carbon emissions by an estimated 5.1%.