Can South Africa Withdraw from Its Addiction to Cheap Coal? A Three-Phase Transition Framework for Industry

The industrial sector dominates global energy usage, accounting for approximately 50% of total energy demand, with process heat representing two-thirds of this consumption. Although renewable energy technologies have become increasingly cost-competitive, industrial users have been hesitant to replace fossil fuels to meet heat generation requirements. This study presents a practical framework for industrial energy transition, proposing a phased approach toward sustainable manufacturing practices, processes, and energy technologies. The framework emphasises that while energy efficiency measures form the foundation, strategic technological investment priorities should target the replacement of fossil fuels with sustainable and renewable energy technologies. The formulation of the three-phased energy technology advancement framework is informed by techno-economic analyses across a range of technical interventions available to plant operators, namely beverage manufacturers. For South African conditions, cost–benefit analyses suggest that the industry will prioritise investments in photovoltaic and battery energy storage systems, driven by attractive returns on investment, which are expected to improve. However, sustainability plans and efforts must extend beyond immediate financial returns, particularly in terms of future space requirements and capital allocation. This more holistic approach will ensure long-term sustainability while meeting increasingly stringent environmental commitments.