Research on a Comprehensive Performance Analysis Method for Building-Integrated Photovoltaics Considering Global Climate Change

Building-integrated photovoltaics (BIPVs) represent a pivotal technology for enhancing the utilization of renewable energy in buildings. However, challenges persist, including the lack of integrated design models, limited analytical dimensions, and insufficient consideration of climate change impacts. This study proposes a comprehensive performance assessment framework for BIPV that incorporates global climate change factors. An integrated simulation model is developed using EnergyPlus8.9.0, Optics6, and WINDOW7.7 to evaluate BIPV configurations such as photovoltaic facades, shading systems, and roofs. A multi-criteria evaluation system is established, encompassing global warming potential (GWP), power generation, energy flexibility, and economic cost. Future hourly weather data for the 2050s and 2080s are generated using CCWorldWeatherGen under representative climate scenarios. Monte Carlo simulations are conducted to assess performance across variable combinations, supplemented by sensitivity and uncertainty analyses to identify key influencing factors. Results indicate (1) critical design parameters—including building orientation, wall thermal absorptance, window-to-wall ratios, PV shading angle, glazing optical properties, equipment and lighting power density, and occupancy—significantly affect overall performance. Equipment and lighting densities most influence carbon emissions and flexibility, whereas envelope thermal properties dominate cost impacts. PV shading outperforms other forms in power generation. (2) Under intensified climate change, GWP and life cycle costs increase, while energy flexibility declines, imposing growing pressure on system performance. However, under certain mid-century climate conditions, BIPV power generation potential improves due to altered solar radiation. The study recommends integrating climate-adaptive design strategies with energy systems such as PEDF (photovoltaic, energy storage, direct current, and flexibility), refining policy mechanisms, and advancing BIPV deployment with climate-resilient approaches to support building decarbonization and enhance adaptive capacity.