A Concise Grid-Based Model Revealing the Temporal Dynamics in Indoor Infection Risk

Determining the transmission routes of pathogens in indoor environments is challenging, with most studies limited to specific case analyses and pilot experiments. When pathogens are instantaneously released by a patient in an indoor environment, the peak infection risk may not occur immediately but may instead appear at a specific moment during the pathogen’s spread. We developed a concise model to describe the temporal crest of infection risk. The model incorporates the transmission and degradation characteristics of aerosols and surface particles to predict infection risks via air and surface routes. Only four real-world outbreaks met the criteria for validating this phenomenon. Based on the available data, norovirus is likely to transmit primarily via surface touch (i.e., the fomite route). In contrast, crests of infection risk were not observed in outbreaks of respiratory diseases (e.g., SARS-CoV-2), suggesting a minimal probability of surface transmission in such cases. The new model can serve as a preliminary indicator for identifying different indoor pathogen transmission routes (e.g., food, air, or fomite). Further analyses of pathogens’ transmission routes require additional evidence.