Spatio-Temporal Coupling and Forecasting of Construction Industry High-Quality Development and Human Settlements Environmental Suitability in Southern China: Evidence from 15 Provincial Panel Data

High-quality growth of the construction industry and an improved human settlements environment are essential to sustainable urbanization. Existing studies have paid limited systematic attention to the spatial and temporal dynamics of the coordinated development between the construction industry and human settlements, as well as the underlying factors driving regional disparities. This gap restricts the formulation of precise, differentiated sustainable policies tailored to regions at different development stages and with varying resource endowments. Southern China, characterized by pronounced spatial heterogeneity and unique development trends, offers a natural laboratory for examining the spatio-temporal interaction between these two dimensions. Using panel data for 15 southern provinces (2013–2022), we applied the entropy method, coupling coordination model, Dagum Gini coefficient, spatial trend surface analysis, gravity model, and grey forecasting to evaluate current conditions and predict future trends. The main findings are as follows. (1) The coupling coordination degree rose steadily, forming a stepped spatial pattern from the southwest through the center to the southeast. (2) The coupling coordination degree appears obvious polarization effect, presenting a spatial linkage pattern with Jiangsu-Shanghai-Zhejiang, Hubei-Hunan-Jiangxi, and Sichuan-Chongqing as the core of the three major clusters. (3) The overall Dagum Gini coefficient declined, but intra-regional disparities persisted: values were highest in the southeast, moderate in the center, and lowest in the southwest; inter-regional differences dominated the total inequality. (4) Forecasts for 2023–2027 suggest further improvement in the coupling coordination degree, yet spatial divergence will widen, creating a configuration of “eastern leadership, central catch-up acceleration, and differentiated southwestern development.” This study provides an evidence base for policies that foster high-quality construction sector growth and enhance the living environment. The findings of this study indicate that policymaking should prioritize promoting synergistic regional development, enhancing the radiating and driving role of core regions, and establishing a multi-level coordinated governance mechanism to bridge regional disparities and foster more balanced and sustainable development.