Sundowner Winds at Montecito during the Sundowner Winds Experiment

This study investigates the predictability of downslope windstorms located in Santa Barbara County, California, locally referred to as Sundowner winds, from both observed relationships and a high-resolution, operational numerical weather prediction model. We focus on April 2022, during which the Sundowner Winds Experiment (SWEX) was conducted. We further refine our study area to the Montecito region owing to some of the highest wind measurements occurring at or near surface station MTIC1, situated on the coast-facing slope overlooking the area. Fires are not uncommon in this area, and the difficulty of egress makes the population particularly vulnerable. Area forecasters often use the sea-level pressure difference (<inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><mo>Δ</mo></semantics></math></inline-formula>SLP) between Santa Barbara Airport (KSBA) and locations to the north such as Bakersfield (KBFL) to predict Sundowner windstorm occurrence. Our analysis indicates that <inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><mo>Δ</mo></semantics></math></inline-formula>SLP by itself is prone to high false alarm rates and offers little information regarding downslope wind onset, duration, or magnitude. Additionally, our analysis shows that the high-resolution rapid refresh (HRRR) model has limited predictive skill overall for forecasting winds in the Montecito area. The HRRR, however, skillfully predicts KSBA-KBFL <inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><mo>Δ</mo></semantics></math></inline-formula>SLP, as does GraphCast, a machine learning weather prediction model. Using a logistic regression model we were able to predict the occurrence of winds exceeding 9 m <inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><msup><mi mathvariant="normal">s</mi><mrow><mo>−</mo><mn>1</mn></mrow></msup></semantics></math></inline-formula> with a high probability of detection while minimizing false alarm rates compared to other methods analyzed. This provides a refined and easily computed algorithm for operational applications.