Mediation and Spatial Spillover Effects of the Non-Timber Forest-Based Economy on Diversified Food Supply Capacity: Empirical Evidence from China

Breaking through the constraints of traditional agricultural resources and expanding food supply channels have become essential for safeguarding food security. The non-timber forest-based economy (NTFE), which integrates multiple understory production activities including planting, breeding, and foraging, expands the variety of food sources and provides a new pathway for enhancing regional diversified food supply capacity (DFSC). Based on this perspective, this study constructs evaluation indicator systems for both DFSC and NTFE development. The entropy-weighted TOPSIS method is employed to measure the levels of DFSC and NTFE development across 31 Chinese provinces from 2011 to 2022. A two-way fixed effects model and a spatial Durbin model are applied to empirically investigate the mechanisms through which the NTFE enhances DFSC. The results show the following: (1) Between 2011 and 2022, both the DFSC and the level of NTFE development in China exhibited a sustained upward trend. Specifically, the level of NTFE development grew rapidly before 2019, with a slowdown in growth in the later years, while DFSC maintained a steady increase throughout the study period. (2) NTFE development significantly promotes DFSC. (3) The NTFE enhances DFSC by facilitating the upgrading of the forestry industrial structure and improving forestland productivity. (4) The NTFE generates positive spatial spillover effects on DFSC, and these spillover effects are stronger than direct local effects.