The identification of potential land use conflicts based on land use competitiveness in Guangdong Province, China

Accelerating urbanization and industrialization in China has intensified land use conflicts (LUCs), requiring the identification of potential LUCs and their reconciliation to support the sustainable utilization of land resources. In this study, we established a hierarchical multi-criteria evaluation system for land use competitiveness from the perspective of land suitability and potential driving forces of land-use conversion. Based on this system, we measured the competitiveness intensity for construction, agricultural, and ecological land. Finally, a conflict identification matrix was used to determine the types and intensity of LUCs. We took Guangdong Province as the case study because it is one of the most economically dynamic regions in China and is experiencing severe LUCs. The results were as follows: the potential LUCs were more acute in the non-core areas of the Pearl River Delta, the Eastern Coastal Economic Zone, and the Western Coastal Economic Zone, but weak in agricultural advantage areas, economically developed metropolitan, and ecologically sensitive areas. The primary types of these conflicts were notably between agricultural and ecological land, between agricultural and construction land, and among three land use types, which accounted for 34.00, 10.40, and 10.51% of the provincial area, respectively. The conflict between agricultural land and ecological land mainly occurred in the interface between agricultural and forest ecosystems. Based on the scope, intensity, and spatial patterns of LUCs in each zone, we finally proposed targeted land use strategies and recommendations for different administrative regions. Our findings provide scientific evidence for sustainable land use planning and management in rapidly developing regions.