Study of the changes in the Curonian Lagoon shoreline strip (1995–2024), Lithuania

Coastal lagoons are among the most vulnerable aquatic environments to climate change and human pressures; therefore, studying the Curonian Lagoon is crucial to support evidence-based management and improve understanding of shoreline responses to hydro-meteorological forcing and local land-use pressures. This research investigates the evolution of the Curonian Lagoon shoreline near Preila (Neringa municipality) from 1995 to 2024 using a multi-temporal orthophotographic series (ORT10LT) complemented by a very high-resolution UAV orthomosaic produced in 2024. Shoreline position was consistently delineated and compared across eight observation periods to quantify section-based displacement and hotspot area changes. The analysis reveals a spatially organized pattern, with a persistent accumulation-prone stretch in the mid-profile (250–350 m) and a persistent erosion hotspot toward the latter shoreline (400–566 m). The maximum shoreline retreat reached 32.80 m (425 m section, 2024 relative to 1995–1999), while the maximum shoreline advance reached 18.22 m (275 m section, 2021–2023). Area-based hotspot metrics indicate erosion losses up to 654 m2 (2018–2020) and accumulation gains up to 395 m2 (2009–2010) relative to the baseline. These results provide a reproducible, decision-oriented shoreline-change characterization that supports targeted monitoring and management of this culturally and environmentally significant lagoon margin.