Urban–rural integration of urban agglomerations in China’s Yangtze River Economic Belt: spatiotemporal evolution and driving mechanism

As new progress has been made in urban–rural integration in recent years, the gap between urban and rural development in China has gradually narrowed. However, balancing urban–rural relations, especially accelerating rural development, remains a great challenge. Quantitative research on the level of urban–rural integrated development (URIDL) and its drivers is essential for establishing harmonious urban–rural relations. By utilizing a URIDL indicator system, vertical and horizontal scatter degree method and Geodetector methods, this study evaluates the URIDL in the three agglomerations in China’s Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2010 to 2019, and provides an in-depth exploration of their spatiotemporal evolution and its influencing factors. The results show that: (1) Overall, the URIDL has been on the rise from 2010 to 2019, but the Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration (CYUA) is significantly lower than the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration (YRDUA) and the middle reaches of the Yangtze River urban agglomeration (MRYRUA). (2) In terms of spatial distribution, the URIDL exhibits a clear clustering effect, with high value areas concentrated in the east (north) and low value areas concentrated in the west (south). (3) The study found that the interaction effects of factors such as the proportion of non-agricultural population to total population (X1), per capita arable land area (X3), and industrial structure (X6) are significant, surpassing the impact of single factors. In addition, the volatility of industrial structure (X6) reflects the impact of China’s economic transformation on URID. This study provides scientific guidance for the high-quality development of urban–rural integration in urban agglomerations. It also provides important theoretical and practical references for optimizing regional development layouts and promoting the coordinated development of urban and rural areas.