Advanced modeling and management strategies for nuclear and radiological incidents: from decision support to adaptive governance

Nuclear and radiological emergency preparedness and response (EPR) including decision-support systems and emergency management frameworks operate at the intersection of advanced technical modelling, organizational processes, human decision-making, and societal dynamics. This review is based on a critical synthesis of the scientific and institutional literature addressing dispersion modelling, decision-support systems, emergency management frameworks, and large-scale exercise practice in nuclear and radiological emergencies. By examining how modelling outputs are generated, interpreted, and operationalized across preparedness and response contexts, the review identifies persistent gaps between analytical capabilities and real-world decision-making under uncertainty, time pressure, and multi-actor coordination. The analysis reveals that while significant progress has been achieved in modelling and computational tools, their integration into adaptive management and governance structures remains limited. Existing decision-support approaches often emphasize predefined scenarios and procedural compliance, offering limited support for exploratory reasoning and trade-off analysis in complex and evolving emergencies. Building on these findings, the review advances the concept of Hybrid Emergency Operations Centers (Hybrid EOCs) as an integrative operational and governance framework that connects modelling, decision-support, organizational workflows, and human-in-the-loop decision-making. Rather than prescribing optimal decisions, the proposed approach positions advanced modelling to structure decision spaces, enhance transparency, and support adaptive judgement within complex emergency response ecosystems.