DOAJ Open Access 2023

Recent applications and potential of near-term (interannual to decadal) climate predictions

Terence J. O'Kane Adam A. Scaife Adam A. Scaife Yochanan Kushnir Anca Brookshaw +33 lainnya

Abstrak

Following efforts from leading centres for climate forecasting, sustained routine operational near-term climate predictions (NTCP) are now produced that bridge the gap between seasonal forecasts and climate change projections offering the prospect of seamless climate services. Though NTCP is a new area of climate science and active research is taking place to increase understanding of the processes and mechanisms required to produce skillful predictions, this significant technical achievement combines advances in initialisation with ensemble prediction of future climate up to a decade ahead. With a growing NTCP database, the predictability of the evolving externally-forced and internally-generated components of the climate system can now be quantified. Decision-makers in key sectors of the economy can now begin to assess the utility of these products for informing climate risk and for planning adaptation and resilience strategies up to a decade into the future. Here, case studies are presented from finance and economics, water management, agriculture and fisheries management demonstrating the emerging utility and potential of operational NTCP to inform strategic planning across a broad range of applications in key sectors of the global economy.

Topik & Kata Kunci

Environmental sciences

Penulis (38)

Terence J. O'Kane

Adam A. Scaife

Yochanan Kushnir

Anca Brookshaw

Carlo Buontempo

David Carlin

Richenda K. Connell

Francisco Doblas-Reyes

Nick Dunstone

Kristian Förster

Antonio Graça

Alistair J. Hobday

Vassili Kitsios

Larissa van der Laan

Julia Lockwood

William J. Merryfield

Andreas Paxian

Mark R. Payne

M. Catherine Reader

Geoffrey R. Saville

Doug Smith

Balakrishnan Solaraju-Murali

Nico Caltabiano

Jessie Carman

Ed Hawkins

Noel Keenlyside

Arun Kumar

Daniela Matei

Holger Pohlmann

Scott Power

Marilyn Raphael

Michael Sparrow

Bo Wu

Format Sitasi

APA MLA BibTeX

O'Kane, T.J., Scaife, A.A., Scaife, A.A., Kushnir, Y., Brookshaw, A., Buontempo, C. et al. (2023). Recent applications and potential of near-term (interannual to decadal) climate predictions. https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2023.1121626

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Informasi Jurnal

Tahun Terbit: 2023
Sumber Database: DOAJ
DOI: 10.3389/fclim.2023.1121626
Akses: Open Access ✓