THE EFFECTS OF TOURİSM COMPONENTS ON MACROECONOMİC GROWTH: A COMPARATİVE ANALYSIS ON BLACK SEA COUNTRIES AND AZERBAIJAN

This study aims to analyze the long-term effects of key tourism variables on macroeconomic growth in Bulgaria, Georgia, Romania, the Russian Federation, Turkey, Ukraine, and Azerbaijan over the period 1995–2024. Conducted within the framework of the extended Solow growth hypothesis, the study applies long-run DOLS and MG-DOLS panel cointegration methods to examine dynamics at both the panel and country levels, taking into account common long-term trends as well as structural heterogeneity across countries to ensure robust results. Panel-level MG-DOLS cointegration analysis indicates that tourism capital investments, gross fixed capital formation, and international tourist arrivals have significant and positive effects on economic growth, thereby supporting the extended Solow hypothesis. Country-level DOLS analyses reveal heterogeneity in these effects; while tourism and capital indicators exhibit positive and significant relationships with economic growth in Azerbaijan and Turkey, structural differences in the other countries prevent full confirmation of the hypothesis. The findings highlight tourism’s strategic importance for economic growth and the necessity of integrating it into the economic structure. Policy reforms, investment strategies, sectoral prioritization, revenue diversification, infrastructure improvements, and enhanced investment efficiency are essential to maximize growth potential. Overall, the study demonstrates that tourism plays a positive and strategic role in supporting macroeconomic growth and emphasizes coordinated policies and targeted investments to fully realize its economic contribution across the analyzed countries.