Measuring Likely Voters. A Model for Predicting Electoral Participation in Romanian Presidential Elections
Abstrak
Predicting voter turnout by estimating the proportion of likely votersas accurately as possible is a challenging task and it is debated both in literatureand among experts actively involved in the field of sociological research andpolling organizations. While there are several vari-ables that influence turnout, and also several meth-ods and models that have been put into practice overtime, in reality there is no magic formula for correct-ly measuring, before an election, the percentage ofindividuals that are most likely to vote. Each nation-al context comes with particular variables, as wellas historical factors and demographic dynamics thatneed to be taken into account. We propose a modelbuilt on pre-election survey data and on past officialelection statistics, which has been tested and provenviable in the context of the 2019 Romanian presiden-tial election.
Topik & Kata Kunci
Penulis (3)
Dan SULTANESCU
Daniel BUTI
Dana SULTANESCU
Akses Cepat
- Tahun Terbit
- 2022
- Sumber Database
- DOAJ
- DOI
- 10.25019/perspol/22.15.5
- Akses
- Open Access ✓