From Ice Age to Revival: Assessing the Cyclical Dynamics of Poland’s Real Estate Market Amidst European Downturns

The analysis pertains to the year 2023, when a government program was introduced to support Polish citizens in purchasing their first apartment. This led to a revival in lending activity following a period of stagnation at the turn of 2022 and 2023, referred to as the “ice age”. The study focuses on the impact of this revival on the real estate market and its cyclical rules, taking into account various factors from the banking sector, construction industry, and the economy. Based on public statistical research, it was found that most European countries entered a downturn in the real estate market during the examined period. The main objective of the study was to determine which phase of the cycle the Polish market was in and whether the short-term revival in lending activity altered its cyclical trajectory. The analysis was conducted using quantitative data, which was organized into tables and illustrated with graphs. The results were compared with a real estate market clock modeled after the publication by R. & C. Grover, leading to conclusions. It was established that the Polish real estate market is in recession, and the short-term credit revival did not change this trajectory.