Predictive Modeling Methods for Estimating the Residual Strength of Wooden Structures Based on Experimental Data

Estimating the load-bearing capacity and predicting the residual strength of existing structures is one of the most difficult tasks. Such prediction is usually performed on the basis of experimental destructive testing of samples. A methodology for predicting the residual strength of wooden structures is proposed, based on the results of experimental studies to determine the short-term resistance of pure wood. Wooden rafter systems of residential buildings built in the 1950s and early 1960s in Vladimir were chosen as objects of research. Interpolation and extrapolation methods were used to build a predictive model of the residual life of a structure. Detailed calculations are given, which clearly show the possibility of using these methods. It is determined that the autoregression method (Burg method) shows good predictive results, correlating with experimental data from other studies and theoretical assumptions. Forecasting the remaining life of a structure is a key factor in ensuring the reliability and safety of buildings, as well as reducing future operating costs.