Studying the Stock Market – Economic Activity Nexus in Poland with a VAR‑VECM Approach

The paper discusses the links between stock market performance and real economic activity and presents results of an empirical inquiry into dynamic relationships between the main stock index quoted on the Warsaw Stock Exchange (WIG) and GDP in Poland over the years 1995–2019. In many empirical studies for highly developed countries not only short‑run dynamic interactions but also a long‑run cointegrating relationship between the stock index and output have been found. Previous studies for Poland reported mainly short‑run linkages between stock returns and changes of economic activity whereas the evidence for a long‑run cointegrating relationship is still quite scarce. In this paper, the VAR‑VECM methodology with the Johansen tests for cointegration is used to study a substantially longer quarterly data interval than has been investigated so far. Research results show that stock returns Granger‑cause GDP growth with up to three‑quarters lead. The evidence for the existence of a long‑term cointegrating relationship has also been found.