Assessing design floods for Brazilian hydropower plants spillways under nonstationarity conditions
Abstrak
ABSTRACT Nonstationarity presents a challenge for hydrological design, particularly for large structures that require high return period floods. This paper assesses the statistical properties of annual maximum daily streamflows from 152 hydropower plants (HPPs) operating in Brazil. For series exhibiting temporal trends, we propose the Empirical Quantile Mapping method for correcting nonstationarity. For comparison, we employed the Flow Accumulative Curve technique as a benchmark. These approaches are employed prior to a revisited flood frequency analysis to estimate the 10,000-year design flood. Results indicate that 70 HPPs show evidence of nonstationarity. These series were further examined using a risk index, and we discuss in further detail the cases of the Iguaçu and São Francisco basins. The findings highlight the importance of developing methodologies that account for nonstationarity in the definition of high-recurrence flows.
Topik & Kata Kunci
Penulis (2)
Laís Mariana Wosniack
Daniel Henrique Marco Detzel
Akses Cepat
- Tahun Terbit
- 2026
- Sumber Database
- DOAJ
- DOI
- 10.1590/2318-0331.312620250078
- Akses
- Open Access ✓