DOAJ Open Access 2026

Modeling how macroeconomic shocks affect regional employment: analyzing the brazilian formal labor market using the global VAR approach

Bruno Barbosa Emerson Marçal Pedro Luiz Valls Pereira

Abstrak

Using a Global Vector Autoregressive (GVAR) framework that addresses the curse of dimensionality, we assess linkages between regions and examine how macroeconomic shocks spread across them. This study examines the Brazilian labor market by identifying and quantifying the regional and temporal propagation of shocks in aggregate economic activity. A key innovation is our use of data from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics to measure regional linkages by analyzing the infrastructure connections of Brazilian municipalities. We capture regional interdependence by incorporating both economic and infrastructure connections. Our findings indicate that macroeconomic shocks have a particularly strong effect in Brazil’s South, Southeast, and Midwest regions.

Topik & Kata Kunci

Economic theory. Demography Economic history and conditions Commercial geography. Economic geography Engineering economy Industries. Land use. Labor

Penulis (3)

Bruno Barbosa

Emerson Marçal

Pedro Luiz Valls Pereira

Format Sitasi

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Barbosa, B., Marçal, E., Pereira, P.L.V. (2026). Modeling how macroeconomic shocks affect regional employment: analyzing the brazilian formal labor market using the global VAR approach. https://doi.org/10.1590/1980-53575615bep

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Informasi Jurnal

Tahun Terbit: 2026
Sumber Database: DOAJ
DOI: 10.1590/1980-53575615bep
Akses: Open Access ✓