Analysis and early warning management of resource and environmental carrying capacity in agricultural provinces: A case study of Henan Province.

Resources and Environmental Carrying Capacity (RECC) is a comprehensive concept that encompasses the interactions between resources, the environment, and human activities, serving as the foundation for social development strategies. To adequately reflect this complex relationship, a multi-level, multi-dimensional evaluation indicator system must be developed. This paper constructs a regional soil environmental evaluation system incorporating PM2.5 indicators, which is in line with relevant environmental protection policies and planning orientations in our country from 2014 to 2023. It analyzes the level and development trend of RECC in Henan Province and proposes measures for effective management. The results indicate the following: (1) The RECC in Henan Province demonstrates a downward trajectory, marked by temporary fluctuations over time. It hit its nadir in 2019, subsequently undergoing a gradual resurgence; (2) Analysis of individual dimension indicators reveals that the natural carrying capacity has declined from a medium to a relatively weaker level. Meanwhile, environmental carrying capacity has shown a slight downward trend but has generally remained stable. In contrast, socio-economic carrying capacity has demonstrated an upward trend, rising from a medium to a relatively strong level. In terms of early warning measures, it is essential to establish a red warning zone, implement a credit record accountability system, and develop a monitoring warning database along with an information technology platform. This paper demonstrates that the indicator system is effective for evaluating RECC across different dimensions and holds significant reference value for assessing RECC in similar regions.